After Germany’s draw with Ghana today, many questions are swirling around about if this was really a good result for the USA. The short answer is “maybe.” It’s great if we win tomorrow, okay if we draw, and not very good at all if we lose. I’ve worked out all the permutations (on facebook no less) and reposted them here. Let me know if you have any questions.
RAMIFICATIONS OF A USAvPOR DRAW TOMORROW:
+ We go into GER match level on 4 points with them, but they would have a superior goal dif.
+ USA win vs GER and we go through in 1st.
+ USAvGER draw and GER goes through in 1st, we go through in 2nd.
+ Both GHA and POR go into their final match looking to win big enough to overturn their -1 (GHA) and -4 (POR) goal difs and steal the 2nd place spot from us.
+ If we end up tied on goal difference and points with GHA (i.e. we lose to GER by 1 and GHA beats POR by 1) or POR, then it goes to GOALS SCORED. That one is a little hard to calculate because anything can happen tomorrow and in the upcoming matches, but right now we have 2, GHA has 3, and POR has 0 – but to overturn those goal differentials, they would obviously have to score goals.
RAMIFICATIONS OF A USA LOSS TO POR TOMORROW:
+ USA beats GER and we advance.
+ USA would advance in 1st with a win over GER unless POR beats GHA and overturns goal dif with USA.
+ USA draws GER and POR draws GHA, USA advances (unless our round 2 loss to POR is by 3 or more goals, then POR advances).
+ USA draws GER and GHA beats POR, USA and GHA are tied on 4 and it goes to goal dif (a 1 goal loss to POR by USA and a 1 goal win by GHA would mean it would go to goals scored, anything else and GHA advances).
+ USA draws GER and POR beats GHA, USA is eliminated (and POR goes through in 1st).
+ USA loses to GER, USA is eliminated
RAMIFICATIONS OF A USA VICTORY OVER POR TOMORROW:
+ USA goes to the Round of 16 muthafuckahs!!!! (and in 1st place with a draw or win vs GER).