The Oscars crash down on H.wood tonight in what has been called one of the least contentious contests in years. Is the script already written or will there be some twists and turns? I’m expecting Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin to be a great team but what about the rest of the show? We’ll find out soon enough. Until then, here are my picks for what will win the statues.

Best Pic – Avatar
Should it win? Yes. Even though there are 10 noms this go around, only 2 of them are really in contention. Most odds makers have money on The Hurt Locker but I think its early peak and late controversy will cost it the win. The Hurt Locker would have won 6 or 7 years ago in the indie-friendly awards climate but it just feels like the year of Avatar to me.

Best Director – James Cameron
Should he win? Yes, though I won’t be completely surprised if the academy splits and gives Bigelow this one. The question is, are we talking about a director in the classical sense of directing actors or in the Cameronian sense of inventing new technologies and creating an entire world? Every movie is a collaboration but Cameron helmed his production through incredibly complex waters and deserves the award.

Best Actress – Sandra Bullock
Should she win? No way. Even though she did speak with an accent, Bullock’s character was straight off the shelf. It wasn’t until the films last few scenes that we actually started to get some sense of the character’s motivations. Is that Bullock’s fault? No, the movie isn’t very good. I loved Carey Mulligan in An Education and she gets my pick – but this has been dubbed the year Bullock gets her statue so whatareyagonnado?

Best Actor – Jeff Bridges
Should he win? Yep. Bridges is one of those actors who becomes his character right down to his every subtle movement and Bad Blake is a character with Oscar written all over him. I don’t even remember what Jeremy Renner looks like. If I had to go for someone else my pick would be for Colin Firth who embodies those same qualities and whose character in A Single Man was good enough to win most other years.

Best Supporting Actress – Mo’Nique
Should she win? Yes. She was crowned before any of her competitors’ films were released and she stayed on top throughout. A Vera Farmiga upset is the only one that wouldn’t be a travesty.

Best Supporting Actor – Christopher Waltz
Should he win? Hell yea. Is there anyone who didn’t come out of Inglourious thinking, “Who the hell was that guy and why don’t we just give him the Oscar now?” Best. Nazi. Ever.

Best Original Screenplay – Mark Boal for The Hurt Locker
Should he win? Sure. But mostly because I am picking Avatar to win the main cats. It is pretty close between Boal and Tarantino and I would be pretty happy to see Quentin take the stage and get what he deserves for a film I enjoyed a lot more.

Best Adapted Screenplay – Reitman and Turner for Up in the Air
Should they win? No. This is maybe the toughest category of the big guys. Both Geoffrey Fletcher’s script for Precious and Nick Hornby’s An Education script were great. But how can you not vote for the four-tet behind the almost completely overlooked In The Loop? A gigantic surprise win for them would be fantastic.

Best Foreign Language Feature – The White Ribbon
Should it win? NO! I am sorry to say I have only seen a couple of these noms but France’s A Prophet is good enough to win a best picture award regardless of language and I was certainly no fan of The White Ribbon. It seems unlikely that it will be upset in this category though as it won Palme d’Or (also over 2nd place A Prophet) and has been a critical darling. Ugh.

A quick run down of the rest of my predictions:
Best Doc – The Cove
Best Animated Feature – Up
Best Art Direction – Avatar
Best Cinematography – The Hurt Locker
Best Costume Design – The Young Victoria
Best Editing – Avatar
Best Original Score – Up
Best Song – The Weary Kind from Crazy Heart by Ryan Bingham and T Bone Burnett
Best Sound Editing – Avatar
Best Sound Mixing – Avatar
Best VisFX – Uhhh duh, Avatar