The Oscars are this weekend so I figured I better throw my hat into the prediction game ring. Predicting Oscars is really way more like guessing. Things like which studio has spent the most money and who has the most friends who vote are more important than the actual quality of the film (how else could Crash have won?). Now I’m not one of those jaded Hollywood types who complains about all this – I just think it is important to recognize the system that is in place. I mean, it is all subjective anyway, right? So I’ll try to focus a bit more here on who I would choose to win if I had a vote.

One other note – anyone notice that Hugh Jackman is hosting this year? Odd choice (and in a year when he has a big summer blockbuster coming, if you can believe it) – but I think the guy can be pretty funny so I am keeping my hopes up.

Best Picture All right I give in – Slumdog Millionaire is the year’s best picture. I know, both Milk and Frost/Nixon were on my Top10 – but I’ve gotten swept up in the fanfare and I’ve converted… but I’m not giving it any writing awards. I wouldn’t complain if Benjamin Button snuck out the win (please not The Reader) but I think it’s looking like this will be the final answer.

Best Supporting Actor Heath Ledger played one of the best villains ever on screen in Dark Knight and it would be a shame if he wasn’t awarded for it. All of these roles were just supremely played and any of them are deserving (especially Brolin in Milk) but this is Heath’s award.

Best Supporting Actress This category is a little less clear. I think the odds are on Penelop Cruz for VCB but I am giving my pick to Taraji Henson for her lifetime spanning role in Benjamin Button.

Best Actor Wow, what a category this is. This was a fantastic year for acting and I have to say the best performance I saw was Mickey Rourke in The Wrestler. He may get beat to the finish line by Penn, but Rourke’s role was so much more challenging both physically and emotionally and he certainly deserves the statue.

Best Actress This one is all me and I don’t care what Harvey Weinstein has to say about it. I loved Rachel Getting Married and I’d love to see Anne Hathaway get the award.

Adapted Screenplay The writing categories are a bit strange this year. Usually the writing awards go to the indie darlings that coudn’t squeak out awards/noms for the big categories. Isn’t this just all the Best Pic noms? Well fine – I guess my choice would be Benjamin Button then.

Original Screenplay I don’t like these noms much at all. The writing in Happy-Go-Lucky was atrocious (plot? character arc?) and the screenplay of Milk was its low point. But In Bruges was brilliantly written and deserves the award, even if Wall-e was seen by millions more people and probably a lot more Oscar voters.

Best Director …whatever wins best picture.

And the rest will go to movies that certainly deserve it (unless they go to The Reader). It isn’t the most exciting list of awards ever assembled (except the male actor categories). Heath winning a posthumous award could be a real touching moment, especially if Michelle Williams accepts the award. There is always the chance that Sean Penn will win an award and get another chance to talk about what a fine actor and man Jude Law is, no matter what Chris Rock says (it was a joke, dude). Or it could just be a night of getting way too drunk playing the game where you have to take a shot every time Slumdog wins an award. I’m just hoping I see people I know in the audience.